Iran, Hormuz and the price of oil

Iran, Hormuz and the price of oil

So we’ve removed our forces from Iraq and it seems that the citizens of Iraq have decided that since they have so much in common with Iran that maybe they should be better allies with them, than the United States who liberated their country by bombing it to rubble and helping them execute a dictator.  Now in the end, the folks of Iraq are almost certainly better off than they were under Saddam Hussein, the country is no longer controlled by a militant minority and an evil dictator.  Eventually, hopefully they will work things out and become a new type of Arab democracy.  However, it seems more likely that they are heading for a lot of internal strife between Sunnis and Shiites. 

Additionally, the Iranians have this crazy idea that they should be a nuclear power.  That of course is an idea that doesn’t sit well with the Great Satan or the nation of Israel.  So one or both of our countries is undergoing a covert war against the Iranian nuclear program by blowing things up in Iran, in particular, Iranian nuclear scientists.

So sure, why should you care, this is just the normal insanity and stupidity of international politics right?  Well there are a couple of very good reasons why you should be paying attention to this issue and the first one is oil prices.  You may have noticed that gas prices have started rising again at the pump and there are even reports that the Chinese, who get a lot of oil from Iran are starting to look at other sources.  Sources that we use, which will up demand and therefore the price of the oil we buy.  Oil prices go up and gas prices follow, it’s as simple as that.

The other reason you should care is that an ever more desperate Iran may end up doing something extremely stupid like try to close the Strait of Hormuz.  Now no one believes they could keep the strait closed for very long, reports our anywhere from 2 days to 2 weeks.  However if they were to keep the straight closed for any amount of time, oil prices would spike significantly, gas prices as well.  And with that commodity prices follow, people buy less and our economy slows down once again.  So at the end of the day, a little stupidity in Iran could really be a problem for each of us.

Occupy Wall Street has a long US tradition

Occupy Wall Street has a long US tradition

There have been worker revolts in the United States pretty much as long as the United States has existed.  However the revolts took on another tenor in the late 60’s.  During the civil rights movement these labor disputes began to be focused racial on blacks.  According to Howard Zinn’s, A People’s History of the United States, in 1966, seventy poor blacks occupied an unused barracks on an air force base.  After this event had been resolved, much in the way many occupy encampments were resolved this year a Mrs. Unita Blackwell said,

“I feel that the federal government have proven that it don’t care about poor people.  Everything that we have asked for through these years had been handed down on paper.  It’s never been a reality.  We the poor people of Mississippi is tired.  We’ve tired of it so we’re going to build for ourselves because we don’t have a government that represents us.” 

It’s amazing how 45 years in this country doesn’t seem to change much, this statement, albeit most likely with a little better grammar, would not seem even remotely out of place today.

Again from Zinn, during this time period A. Phillip Randolph advised the president, “ The Negro’s protest today is but the first rumbling of the ‘under-class.’  As the Negro has taken to the streets, so will the unemployed of all races take to the street.”

This is what the Occupy movement is about, not some socialist ideal but an opportunity for people to be treated fairly and decently in this country.  That of course is based upon the idea that it’s not fair or decent that the 1% of the nation live like gods while there are so many people hurting, that’s why people are in the street.  Now that may be a socialist ideal but basic common decency is a socialist ideal I can get behind.

The Monsters are due on Maple Street in 2012

The Monsters are due on Maple Street in 2012

So, the holidays are over, everyone had time to visit with friends and family.  We all ate too much and got nice presents and watched little kids go nuts and rip open packages, get new toys only in half of the instances to end up playing with the box all day.  Most of us did a lot of Christmas shopping this year, retailers had a bigger year than last year but one particular retail sector set records, gun stores.

 That’s right record gun sales in December, eclipsing the previous record set way back in November of that’s right, 2011.  Why are so many people in the United States arming themselves?  One of my favorite episodes from the original Twilight Zone series is called the Monsters are Due on Maple Street.  It’s a typical neighborhood in 1950’s America on a Summer night, washing cars, barbecues and kids playing in the street.  Then something streaks across the sky and a kid tells a story about alien invasion and ordinary people begin to turn on each other to find the monsters among them.  In nuclear paranoid America there was always an undercurrent of fear and paranoia that the big one would fall.  Take that tension and add just the right pressure and boom, neighbor against neighbor.  Of course it’s the Twilight Zone so at the end of the episode the camera pulls back and two aliens talk about how this is exactly how they’ll do the invasion, the kid was right.

Well, a lot of the conditions that made Maple Street ripe for chaos are present today in America once again.  We are in a world where the people of Arab nations are taking to the streets to free themselves from oppressive leaders.  Iran and North Korea are less stable than they have been in quite some time.  Occupy protestors are in the streets right here in the United States, and for good reason, our political system is broken, the current GOP Presidential race is more like reality TV than a process designed to possibly pick the next leader of the free world (whatever that is), our economy is dragging along on life support fearing the default of Italy or Spain, or Iran causing oil prices to spike.  The income gap in the United States is larger than ever and unemployment still flies well above 8% and a whole lot of kids are going to graduate with college degrees this May and not find work.

Now we no longer live under the fear of imminent nuclear war, although Putin is doing a dandy job of raising the nerves of Washington establishment.  However there is a lovely irrational fear that has permeated our culture, the Apocalypse.  That’s right the end of the Mayan Calendar has had a perceptible impact on the psyche of Americans.

Now do I think the world is going to end on December 21, 2012 of course not, I mean really, just because Zippy the Mayan Calendar Maker stopped his calendar at the end of a cycle a thousand years in the future doesn’t mean he had some mystical insight into the future.  Now I personally think ancient peoples get vastly under estimated for their level of intelligence and ability, but being psychic or having worked out the intricacies of plate tectonics, solar cycles, calculate universal gravitational constants and the rotation of planets imperceptible to modern man?  I don’t think so.

 The real risk from all of this Mayan silliness is the underlying pressure that it creates.  The impact it has on all of those new gun owners and new breed survivalists.  You see I don’t worry about the folks who have been building bunkers for years and setting up remote bug out locations.  The people I fear are the ones who are scared and semi-prepared or not prepared at all.  You see it’s that group of people who lose it for little or no reason.   Take the real tensions in our world, add in the irrational tensions of doomsday and then throw a combination of unexpected events and you have a recipe for disaster.  So say a heat wave this Summer triggers a power outage that crashes the grid for a couple of days, does a major metropolitan city meltdown under that scenario?  What if that power outage happens on December 21^st, how many of those new gun owners start shooting at their neighbors who want to come to their house to stay warm.  To me what this says is that Maple Street is ready for the monsters and as Rod Serling said in the epilogue to that famous Twilight Zone episode, “the monsters are us.”

Today is a very sad day, the American Dream is dead

Today is a very sad day, the American Dream is dead.

So today at work I found out that a 30+ year employee of the college had died, her name was Cleone.  She was the prototypical lunch lady in many ways and worked as a cashier in the cafeteria.  She was older, probably in her 60’s and worked hard for what little she was making in her job.  She was a very nice woman, although she routinely put up with a lot of lip from students, staff and faculty she kept a generally positive attitude. 

I usually buy breakfast at the cafeteria on Thursdays and she would be working the register, we’d stop and chat for a time and we always made each other laugh.  Hell, occasionally she’d even cut me a break on the price of my breakfast burrito.  She was a nice person; it makes me sad to know she won’t be there this Thursday morning.

What makes me even sadder is the realization of how many people in this country, like Cleone, work right up until the day they die.  Good people, hard-working people who cannot afford to retire because of the realities of the costs of housing and health care.  The American Dream is dead, we were told when we were young that we could be anything we want.  We were shown a model where you go to school, get good grades and work hard and you’ll be rewarded.  Your company will give you a gold watch and a nice retirement check, you’ll be able to take cruises or go fishing, Social Security and will make up the difference.  You’ll be taken care of in old age between Medicaid and your retirement benefits. 

Conservative commentators like to tell us that the reason people like Cleone are in the position they are in is because they just didn’t work hard enough, or weren’t motivated enough.  If you believe them, anyone with wealth in this country is essentially just better than those who haven’t achieved it.  There are no twists of fate or unfortunate circumstances, if you work hard you win, if not you lose.  Bullshit to that, my buddy Cleone worked hard and she lost, the asshole commentators in their suits and ridiculous hair are not better than her, or you, or me, do you hear that Limbaugh, Hannity, Beck.

The dream is dead and Cleone is just one of the first wave, there are a lot of baby boomers who will make out fine, but my generation, many of the people I grew up with are heading for Cleone’s fate, hell, I may be heading for Cleone’s fate, like I said when I started, it’s a sad day today.

Should we riot in the US ? Congress is not interested in helping America.

For the last few days there has been rioting in Britain, as usual with any kind of middle class or lower class riots that occur, the media and the government miss the point.  The initial riot kicked off because of a questionable police shooting.  But the riots that have continued throughout England are not about that, they are about people who already have it tough seeing their economic future going down the drain.  Of course there is always a portion of the crowd that are pure thugs and hoodlums, but these riots reveal deeper social issues that struggling people don’t know how to address and the same people have come to feel their government doesn’t care about them.

Today on CNN I saw a viewer comment that suggested we should riot in the US.  I disagree with the idea of looting and burning business and fighting the cops in the street, that should always be an absolute last result at the point at which there are no other options.  I liked another comment I saw which suggested like in Egypt, we should have a 100,000 people show up at every state capitol and on the national mall all on the same day to basically scare the government straight.

Our government still doesn’t get it however and even in creating the “bipartisan” debt commission that came out of the debt ceiling deal, they are setting it up for failure.  John Avlon  wrote a piece today that highlights the fact that the people the two parties have appointed to the commission are highly partisan members of congress who are unlikely to make a deal.  In fact, the two parties have actually gone out of their way to not include the “gang of 6” senators who actually tried to reach a bipartisan agreement.  Showing that both parties are actively against the idea of compromise to the benefit, and on behalf of, the American people.  Maybe we should take to the streets after all until our elected leaders finally get it.

 

John Avlon piece

 

 

 

Standard & Poors credit downgrade of US; your grandchildren will read about this or will they?

As I’m sure you know, on Friday afternoon Standard & Poors reduced America’s credit rating from AAA, to AA, essentially a demotion in the credit worthiness of the United States.  This will have a range of effects on all of us primarily through a rise in interest rates, lord knows credit card companies will use any excuse to jack our rates up.  The downgrade is not all that unexpected and while it certainly is a slap at how ineffective congress has been, it may also be a cover your ass move by Standard & Poors, they had Lehman’s Brothers well rated right up to the moment it failed and kicked off the financial crisis.  So they want to make sure they don’t look bad again.

Like me you are probably all pretty sick of the around the clock news coverage of this and the same old story, over and over again.  We were downgraded, what will it mean, will the stock market freak out?  Ok, we got it the first 26 times.

For me there is a bigger historical issue well at hand.  Over the last forty years we have seen more and more control of our lives and our governments by corporations.  They have infiltrated every sector of our life, their lobbyist have changed laws and distorted the truth, think nicotine is not addictive and smoking doesn’t cause cancer.  Or how about all the current natural gas commercials about how natural gas fracking is a clean,safe and effective way to help our energy needs, take a look at this before you buy that one.  https://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/09/13/natural-gas-fracking-in-the-news/

The bigger issue here for me is that Standard & Poors’ has said they are downgrading the US because congress didn’t go far enough in dealing with our national debt.  They are certainly correct about that but this is a credit rating corporation telling us how to run our country, and holding it hostage by its credit rating.  Much like the Tea Party folks just did with the debt ceiling increase.  At least the Tea Party are elected American officials and not a multi-national corporation.  Why this is significant to me is that this is the first time a corporation has publicly directed the United States of America to take a specific action.  Now, the action may be in our best interest, but it is disconcerting to see the most powerful country on Earth be directed by a company.

All of this starts to make me think about the movie Rollerball, not the bullshit remake, but the one from the 70’s with James Caan and John Houseman, where the world has been taken over and run by the corporation.  The takeover has been going over for years but this is the first really overt action, maybe I’m just running with a dystopian, paranoid fantasy here, or maybe it’s prophetic.  Maybe your grandkids will read about this in textbooks, or maybe it will be carefully edited out, who knows?

Congress don’t raise the debt ceiling!

Congress don’t raise the debt ceiling!

Congress, don’t raise the debt ceiling, seriously let the United States default on our debts, watch the stock market crash, watch more people end up out of work, and watch interest rates rise.  The reason I want this to happen is that people don’t really pay attention to anything unless it hits them in the pocketbook or the wallet. 

Global warming won’t be real until it costs people money, the utter stupidity of a fossil fuel economy didn’t even cross most people’s minds until gasoline hit $4.00 a gallon, a level we’re unfortunately getting very comfortable with.  And so, the debt ceiling won’t mean anything until it goes boom and people are suddenly less able to retire, or their adjustable rate mortgage jumps up a couple of points.

Maybe, if congress lets us down on this issue to the point that our collective and individual bottom lines suffer then maybe, just maybe, we’ll finally understand that in America there is just one political party, the re-election party.  Jokers wearing elephant lapel pins can’t possibly vote for tax increases and jokers with jackass pins can’t possibly cut any entitlements because they are afraid their base will desert them and they won’t get re-elected, which of course is the sole reason they are in office.

I consistently hear politicians, especially conservatives, and idiot commentators like Sean Hannity talk about the debt in terms of personal finance.  They are always saying if you are out of money you can’t print up more, you have to cut back.  Well you damn fools, when people are truly broke they don’t just cut back on spending, they often also go out and get a second job.  You see ordinary everyday people are smart enough to understand that in order to solve a debt problem you have to decrease spending AND raise revenues. 

So the hell with the debt ceiling let it all crash and then maybe just maybe we can finally start getting rid of these bums and actually put somebody from something other than the re-election party into office.

 

Economic impact on Burning Man

Below is a link to an article I just found on the Christian Science Monitor, despite the headline I used this story is much more about the people in Empire & Gerlach who are going through tough times.  Empire will be officially a ghost town when we are playa bound and this is bound to have a big effect on the folks in Gerlach.  So a big hug out to our once a year friends in these two towns:

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Society/2011/0611/Slump-in-construction-industry-creates-a-Sheetrock-ghost-town

Sustainable Sunday: Energy usage, and the nuclear water hog

The availability of clean water is fast becoming a major global problem as well as becoming an issue for the United States.  A recent report by the CBS Evening news indicated that several states could face severe water shortages within the next three years.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/01/08/eveningnews/main6073416.shtml

Given this information we need to pay more attention to the way we use water.  The average household in California uses between 160,000 and 320,000 gallons of water each year!  We need to find ways in which we reduce water usage and this includes the way in which we generate our energy.  http://www.fs.fed.us/r5/publications/water_resources/html/water_use_facts.html

The three major forms of electrical energy generation in California are Natural Gas (23%), Nuclear Energy (15%) and Coal (16%).  When using natural gas to generate electricity you need 3 gallons of water for every BTU generated, for coal that number rises to at least 40 gallons of water and for nuclear power a minimum of 2,400 gallons of water per BTU produced.  We often hear the propaganda that nuclear energy is clean and cheap, but I’m not sure the waste issues or water usage back up that claim.  As water becomes more scarce and precious I’m not sure we can afford nuclear energy any longer.

When we examine photovoltaic (PV) electric energy production we find that PV only uses about 3 gallons of water per BTU, in the same range as natural gas.  Given that PV doesn’t produce carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases when generating energy, doesn’t have the waste problems of nuclear energy, and uses significantly less water, when are we in a water scarce state start to consider swapping out new PV for old nuclear?

Growth in solar energy is imperative in California if we are to develop the amount of clean energy needed by this state.  So let’s start incentivizing solar energy in the same way we have traditionally subsidized nuclear energy.

http://www.globalsubsidies.org/en/subsidy-watch/commentary/gambling-nuclear-power-how-public-money-fuels-industry

Why the military-industrial complex commanded we abandon Libya

I am not prone to flights of conspiratorial fancy but sometimes the conspiracy theory nuts get close to the truth.  So in this post I want to lay out an idea about how significant our abandonment of democratically focused freedom fighters was always a foregone conclusion.

So what is the military-industrial complex?  In 1961 President Dwight D Eisenhower made a farewell speech to the nation.  In that speech he clearly related the coming marriage between the defense industry and our nation and how powerful that new relationship would become and the impact it would have.  The most significant passage from his talk is below:

This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence — economic, political, even spiritual — is felt in every city, every State house, every office of the Federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved; so is the very structure of our society.

In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the militaryindustrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.

The amount we spent on defense in America in 2010 was $663 billion, roughly one-sixth of the entire US budget (16%).  By comparison, we spent $46 billion to fund the Department of Education.

The top ten defense lobbyist spent $27 million in the last quarter of 2009 at a time when the US had decided to ramp up the military efforts in Afghanistan.  With this type of money being spent the defense industry becomes a significant player in our government with significant influence on the policies and actions of congress and the president.

In a nutshell what this means is that the defense industry has a vested interest, which they pay heavily for, in how we conduct ourselves in the world.  Corporate leaders look for opportunities to support conflict which drives their profits, likewise they need fear to hold continued support from the public, and have an interest in maintaining a healthy economy that allows for significant defense spending.  So the military-industrial complex needs a growing economy, an American public in fear and conflict to drive military spending.

So how does this relate to Libya?  Libya is an oil rich country, granted, not a significant importer to America but an oil rich Arab nation none-the-less and let’s not forget that the defense industry is a global, not an American, phenomenon.   So as Egyptian students revolted in the streets we could be supportive, Egypt does not provide us with oil and as such is not a threat to our growing economy.  Saudi Arabia however is and literally across a causeway bridge is a burgeoning revolt in the country of Bahrain.  If the United States stepped in and helped out the Libyan rebels with military assets, it would be difficult to justify not helping similar rebels in Bahrain and then potentially, rebels in Saudi Arabia, our third largest energy provider after Canada and nearly equal to Mexico.  But North American sources are easily protected, the Saudi’s our good friends are not. 

So by not stepping in to help the Libyan rebels we do two things.  First, we stay on Gaddafi’s good side and also keep the oil fields pumping and oil profits from Libya flowing.  Secondly, we set up a situation where it would be hypocritical to go into Bahrain.  And so today, our good friends the Saudi’s moved in to help Bahrain quell their street protests with a military presence.  I’m sure this was done to send a clear message to people in Saudi Arabia that if they would use their military against protestors in Bahrain, they would certainly do the same at home.  Staying out of Libya guaranteed the Saudi’s could act with impunity.

We have one of the elements the military-industry complex needs, oil is flowing and that allows for economic growth in the world.  Now all we need is to keep the American public afraid and find a military option to make up for monies no longer being spent in Iraq.  Well my friends, both of those things can be taken care of in Yemen.  First there is a revolt going on in Yemen as well, and secondly they specter of Al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula is alive and well.  Those two things give the United States all of the justification we need to perform airstrikes and missile attacks and eventually move forces into Yemen.  The purpose will be to quell the protests against the Yemeni president we support and of course to remove the bogey man of the 21^st century, the Al Qaeda terrorist threat.