Why you should care about protests in Tunisia, Yemen and Egypt

Several weeks ago there was a governmental overthrow that occurred in Tunisia and it is easy to write off Tunisia as a tiny country that has no impact on life in America, more about Tunisia at the following link:

http://www.npr.org/2011/01/16/132975274/Social-Media-Gets-Credit-For-Tunisian-Overthrow

Then there were protests in Yemen and we’ve talked about Yemen before, first a post about the recent protests:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12295864

And what we’ve discussed about Yemen previously:

http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/12/23/the-next-big-terror-threat/

Finally, unless you’ve been in a coma for the last week you probably know that there are massive protests going on in the country of Egypt.  The protestors on the street, in what have been relatively peaceful protests so far; seem to want one thing, Hosni Mubarak out of office.  Mubarak has been the ruler of Egypt for nearly thirty years and the people of Egypt are demanding a change, you can read more about Mubarak at the following link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hosni_Mubarak

At this point a natural question arises were the neocons correct about the Middle East?  Are we seeing the results of the policy of forcing democracy on other countries?  An interesting discussion on this topic is available at the following link:

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2011/01/30/matthews-were-neocons-right-about-middle-east-was-bush-better-equippe

Personally, I don’t see a stable democracy in Iraq or in Afghanistan, and there are still plenty of non-democratic governments in the Middle East including Iran and Saudi Arabia.  What seems to be occurring in the streets of the Arab world is not related to Islam and democracy but a very simple issue, basic human survival and the gap between those who have power, money and control and those who are struggling to survive.  Unemployment, poverty, and lack of education and opportunity is what the people are calling for in the streets of Tunisia, Yemen and especially Egypt.

So why should you care?  You are safe at home and watching Egypt on CNN, so really why should you care?  Ok, first this can impact our economy, in a minor way if Egypt’s economy generally melts down without too much violence.  If however things in Egypt really disintegrate and there is an interruption in travel through the Suez Canal, which is controlled by Egypt, then it could be a very big deal.  That interruption would cause oil coming out of the region to travel an additional 6,000 miles around Africa and that will impact oil prices.  You may have noticed gas prices creeping up recently and I think you can count on the creep continuing with what’s going on in Egypt.  If it really goes south there could be a significant increase in gas prices and as we have seen that impacts prices across the board in the US.

However, I’ll give you an even bigger reason to worry about what’s going on in these countries.  The issues that are being taken on in Egypt, poverty, education, unemployment, and the prosperity gap, do not only exist in these countries.  Looking at Greece, Spain, the UK and the United States this issue exists everywhere and is getting worse.  My friends, there is a limit to how long a person can suffer, can watch his/her children suffer while others have control of his/her life.  At some point people will say no more and express themselves, and then, all bets are off.  So why should you care, I’ll tell you, the country you live in, is not as different from Egypt as you might like to think.

Recession part 2, Depression or the Apocalypse!

So Greece has been very bad, they’ve done something nutty over the past few years, they spent and they spent and guess what, they didn’t have the money to cover the checks.  Now you may be thinking hey, haven’t we been doing the exact same thing, the answer is yes.  However, Greece went a little bit cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs and their debt is excessive in comparison to our own.  So, the European Union has developed a bailout plan and Greece has moved into austerity measures.  Austerity measures is a very nice way to say we’re cutting services, upping your taxes and you’re not getting squat for it.  It also certainly insures that unemployment will start to rise a bit,of course there have been street protests in Greece over the last couple of weeks.  The real interesting question is how will this crisis impact the rest of Europe?  Assuming everything else stays steady in Europe things will work out just fine, however if anything else goes wonky things could unravel badly for them.

So what else could go badly?  Well the European housing market is not the most stable market in the world and there has just been significant political change in the UK.  Oil prices have climbed up and look to be heading to near $100 a barrel this summer.  Should that rise continue and oil make that type of climb it could have a chilling effect on the economy.  It was $145 a barrel oil that helped hammer the global economy during the recent global debt crisis.  Commodity markets also seem to be artificially propped up with people using the extremely low-interest rates that exist to gamble on commodities.  This puts investors in a precarious position that could prove untenable.

Finally there are currently two global political issues that are quite dangerous.  First, the ongoing situation in Iran and the impending sanctions that the UN have approved with the support of Russia, China and the US.  The Iranian government is sitting on the edge of stability with a strong dissident movement in their country.  They may try mustering nationalism as a cure for their internal political ills by trying to impact oil prices or launching a missile at Israel, either of these could have a very destabilizing impact on oil prices.  The last and perhaps most dangerous current issue is North Korea, the South Koreans have accused North Korea of torpedoing one of their warships.  The US has backed this assertion and the tough language that the South Koreans have undertaken.  North Korea, as usual, has threatened war if new sanctions are implemented and folks, one day the crazy bastards that run that country are going to cut loose.

So we sit on the edge of one of those potential apocalyptic moments, not Armageddon mind you, but the type of apocalyptic events that could lead to a collapse of the global economy – global depression.  This isn’t the first time we’ve been here, it won’t be the last, and we’ve been lucky before, so we probably will be again, probably.  Besides sooner a later things have to go to shit, Glenn Beck needs the ratings!