Does this mean Global Warming has accelerated?

Does this mean Global Warming has accelerated?

The short answer is no, but take a little walk with me.

So how do crazy tin-foil hat rumors get started and fly across the internet scaring the heck out of innocent folks?  Typically they start with a grain of truth, some piece of scientific research or information and then it gets out of control.  A couple of recent examples surrounding the BP Gulf of Mexico oil spill include that the sea floor was cracked in multiple areas and that Russian Oceanographer Anatoly Sagalevitch had taken his Mir1 and Mir2 submersibles to the gulf and reported this in Russia which would lead to us needing to nuke the seafloor in the Gulf.

I busted that rumor by contacting Dr. Sagalevitch and you can read about that here:

http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/06/26/anatoly-sagalevitch-comments-on-bp-oil-crisis-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

The next one that got a serious foothold was that a giant methane bubble was going to erupt from under the Gulf of Mexico and extinguish almost all life on earth.  This rumor followed the standard path, first there is some real science, a theory by Dr. Gregory Riskin that puts forward that an event like the one describe above may have been responsible for past mass extinctions.  Then you have the Gulf of Mexico BP oil spill and high levels of methane related to the spill and boom, someone jumps to the conclusion that the drilling has set off a mass extinction event.  Dr. Riskin himself debunked this one and I detailed many of the points of incongruity in another post on this blog:

http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/07/24/has-bp-triggered-an-explosive-methane-event-that-will-bring-on-dystopian-times/

Well let’s see if we can head one off before it gets started, as the title suggests, a study shows plants are reducing their uptake of carbon.  So the part that is the real science is that a 10 year study has shown that carbon uptake rates have decreased over the last decade.  Now the alarming thing is that if this trend continued it would actually accelerate the rate of increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and any impacts that result from the increase.  Hence the effects of global climate change would be greatly accelerated.   Now the not so alarming part the study, like any good scientific study, also indicates that this may have a very explainable cause.  First, the decrease is very small compared to the overall rate of carbon uptake and secondly, during the period of the study there were massive droughts in both hemispheres.  The droughts could easily account for the decrease.  You can read the article for yourself at:

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2010/0820/As-plant-productivity-dips-a-search-for-answers?sms_ss=email

As I mentioned in the methane bubble debunk piece I worry about the level of science education in the American population and the ability for the general public to discern science from conjecture, essentially the ability to tell Carl Sagan and Glenn Beck apart.

The BP Gulf Oil Spill is nothing compared to this…

The BP Gulf Oil Spill is nothing compared to this…

 Probably the only upside to the BP Horizon drilling platform sinking and subsequent oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico is that light has been shed on some other significant problems in the energy sector.

The first area that has gotten recent attention is the situation in the Niger Delta in Africa.  This area in Africa that many multi-national oil companies drill for oil in has had a significant amount of oil spill damage to its environment.  Effectively the river system that the local people are completely dependent upon for everything is a toxic mess.  The monetary fund established to compensate these same people  seems to vanish after it reaches the government of the country.  How much oil has been spilled in the Niger Delta, the equivalent of a spill the size of the Exxon Valdez disaster every year for the last forty years, a total of over 13 million barrels of oil.  This has not only led to an environmental disaster but also political upheaval as well as locals have rebelled against the government by performing terrorist acts upon the oil pipelines and drilling rigs in Niger exacerbating the problem.  However, I have to say, were I in their shoes  I might do the same thing, you can learn more about the situation in the following links:

http://newsdesk.org/2010/06/niger-delta-oil-spills-dwarf-bp-exxon-valdez-catastrophes/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/30/oil-spills-nigeria-niger-delta-shell

The second area that has gotten attention due to the BP disaster has been the issue of previously capped wells that may be leaking oil and methane into the gulf.  According to the Associated Press, there are over 27,000 abandoned wells in the Gulf of Mexico.  These “abandoned wells” are not inspected and many have been capped since the 1940’s, there are laws on the books that require these wells , particularly recently abandoned wells, to be inspected but there are no teeth in the laws so companies do not comply.  Essentially, neither the government nor the industry have any idea if or more likely how many of these wells are leaking.  Given that wells can repressurize and caps in place for up to 70 years maybe rusted and faulty, how long will it be before we have another huge spill in the Gulf of Mexico, you can read more about this at:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2010/07/07/1547812/old-wells-are-rarely-checked-for.html

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gz8SP1X8Y6bOR5kwCcuxUdV1XwLgD9GPVQ0G1

Finally there is one issue in the energy sector that has not gotten the attention it deserves during this disaster and that is the environmental damage done by hydrologic cracking or more commonly called, fracking.  I recently wrote a piece on this and you can read it at:

http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/07/13/bp-and-the-oil-industry-are-only-part-of-the-danger-and-haliburton-is-involved/

For me all of this brings up two significant issues, the first being that our insatiable desire for energy has caused us to pursue an extractive energy policy regardless of the environmental and I would argue long-term economic costs.  This mentality has to change and has to come on several fronts including conservation which seems to currently being ignored by everyone; selective extraction with concern for the environmental and health impacts to the public; and finally an energy policy in this country that address and focuses on renewable energy.  No matter what your political affiliation is you can’t deny that renewable energy helps us solve our energy issues in the United States which in the end helps our economy and improves our national security by leaving us less dependent on unstable nations.  Currently in California people are actually trying to repeal a state law that has been helping us down this road, have we learned anything from the BP spill?

My fear is that the only thing that we will take away from this disaster are the rumors of things that haven’t actually happened including the cracking of the sea floor and extinction level methane bubble disasters, both have been debunked in previous posts and can be found at:

http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/07/24/has-bp-triggered-an-explosive-methane-event-that-will-bring-on-dystopian-times/

http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/06/26/anatoly-sagalevitch-comments-on-bp-oil-crisis-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

Has BP triggered an explosive methane event that will bring on Dystopian Times?

A story has been floating around the internet recently, written by Terrence Aym, that references Gregory Riskin’s theory that several times over the course of the history of the world, explosive releases of methane gas from under the ocean have caused mass extinctions.  This theory is currently being debated in the scientific community particularly amongst geologists.  According to Aym, the recent events taking place in the Gulf of Mexico, “may have triggered an irreversible, cascading geological Apocalypse that will culminate with the first mass extinction of life on Earth in many millions of years.”

Aym further discusses the signs that would be evidence of this cataclysmic event which would include:  a splitting and cracking of the sea floor; a rise in the level of the sea floor; and massive venting of methane and other gasses.  According to Aym, ALL OF THESE ARE HAPPENING! 

You can find Aym’s story at:

http://www.helium.com/items/1882339-doomsday-how-bp-gulf-disaster-may-have-triggered-a-world-killing-event

Were this to actually occur what would really happen?  According to Ryskin’s theory the explosive release of the methane would cause a massive sea floor collapse which would trigger a giant tsunami that would significantly inundate coastal zones potentially around the world.  Secondly, as the methane entered the atmosphere, methane/water vapor clouds would form that would actually self-ignite causing worldwide fire storms.  In the end, were this event to actually occur we are talking about the end of society as we know it and for any human survivors the beginning of Dystopian Times!

So, should you be terrified right now?  Should you be suddenly investing in gas masks and fire suppression systems?  Should you say the hell with it, spend out the limits of your credit cards and have the world’s last greatest orgy?  Well the Libertarian in me won’t allow me to tell you what to do, but here are a few things to think about.

First off, Aym claims that all of the signs of a massive methane release have been demonstrated including fracturing of the sea floor, this is a rumor that has been floating around the net and is mainly attributed to comments made by Dr. Anatoly Sagalevitch which were debunked in this blog after we talked to Dr. Sagalevitch, you can read more about this at:

http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/06/26/anatoly-sagalevitch-comments-on-bp-oil-crisis-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

Secondly Aym asserts that the sea floor is rising, which he gets from reports that have ”filtered in” but yet he quotes no one specific, which has to raise some doubts about the validity of this statement.  Additionally, Aym tells us, “Most disturbing of all: Methane levels in the water are now calculated as being almost one million times higher than normal.”   He is quoting a Reuters article by Julie Steenhuysen where they do say they found concentrations in some places one million times the background concentration, however the article goes on to say that in other places they found much lower concentrations and they don’t know way.  Also, were the entire gulf being flooded with methane at the levels suggested by Mr. Aym, then the oxygen concentrations would be severely reduced.  While the researchers found some places where oxygen levels were 30% lower than normal, they also found areas with normal levels of oxygen.  So it would appear that there isn’t a massive methane bubble in the gulf at this time.  You can read the article for yourself at:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2221822720100622

Finally, as with the comments  attributed to Dr. Sagalevitch, someone actually did the smart thing and actually contacted Dr. Gregory Ryskin to ask him what he thinks?  Well folks, he doesn’t think it’s even a possibility given his theory actually deals with completely different methane compounds then the ones being released into the Gulf of Mexico.  So the guy who wrote the theory that all of the fuss is being made about doesn’t support Mr. Aym, and you can read about this at:  

http://www.businessinsider.com/gregory-ryskin-methane-2010-7

So at the end of the day is Terrence Aym just another tin foil hat lunatic trying to scare everyone to death for his own sick amusement, I doubt it.  Sadly I think the real issue a serious issue that our society faces, a lack of science education.  It is understandable that Mr. Aym could become terrified having been exposed to Ryskin’s theory, (probably on the History Channel special MegaDisasters), and then reading what would seem like those same things occurring in the Gulf of Mexico.  Unfortunately, any digging and reasoned thinking shows us clearly that we are not on the edge of a global methane bubble disaster.  Dystopian times might be coming folks, but not from this.

Gulf Seafloor Cracking Rumors to Get Tested Today by BP!

Today BP will commence with testing its new containment cap set up on the leaking Horizon Well on the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.  I reported earlier in my blog on some of the scary rumors that had been floating around the web concerning that the seafloor was in fact cracked and that oil was not just leaking from the bore hole, but also from multiple cracks along the seafloor.  You can view that original post at:  http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/06/14/if-this-is-true-bp-may-lead-the-united-states-into-depression/

One of the main points of the rumor was that Dr. Anatoly Sagalevitch had been to the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico in his deepwater submersibles the Mir1 and Mir2, I contacted Dr. Sagalevitch and he cleared this rumor up by telling me that he in fact had not been to the Gulf of Mexico and that the submersibles were currently being utilized in Lake Baikal in Russia.  You can read more about this at: http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/06/26/anatoly-sagalevitch-comments-on-bp-oil-crisis-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

This however has not stopped rumors flying around the net that in fact the seafloor is cracked and that multiple leaks exist.  I have not ruled out this possibility and today we will get a key piece of evidence to either confirm or put down the speculation.  The cap that BP is fitting today will actually stop the flow of oil out of the pipe head.  Once they place that cap, if the pipe below is in tact and there are not other leaking areas, the pressure under that cap will rise, they predict up to 8000 psi.  If once they place that cap and close the vents and the pressure does not increase, it is significant evidence of at least more than one leak point.

So, if the pressure up significantly we can put all of the seafloor cracking rumors to bed.  If however it doesn’t, it’s not confirmation of the rumors but will be indicative of other leak points and leaves us in a position of not being able to refute that idea.

As of the writing of this article BP has announced they have delayed the closing of the vents and the integrity or pressure test.  This in itself makes me wonder if they have some indication it will not be successful?  However at this point, all we can do is sit and wait, just like we’ve been doing for nearly 3 months.

Anatoly Sagalevitch comments on BP Oil crisis in the Gulf of Mexico

I wrote a post about two weeks ago after reading a story online that Anatoly Sagalevitch, a world renown Russian Oceanographer, had visited the Gulf of Mexico shortly after the Deepwater Horizon platform managed by BP had exploded and collapsed.  According to the article Dr. Sagalevitch had reportedly said that upon his visit to the site in his submersibles, that he in fact saw over 20 cracks on the seafloor leaking.  You can read my post at: http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/06/14/if-this-is-true-bp-may-lead-the-united-states-into-depression/

As you may notice, the post title starts with, if this is true?  That particular question weighed on me for some time and I waited to see if the mainstream media would address this question.  They did not, so I decided to track down the answer myself.  Anyone who tells you it’s easy to track down anyone’s e-mail address on the web hasn’t tried to track down anyone they didn’t already know.  It took me three days of searching but finally I was able to get in contact with Dr. Sagalevitch and as him the very basic question, is this story true?  Dr. Sagalevitch’s response was very prompt and he told me he had not been to the Gulf of Mexico, in fact he was on vacation when the accident occurred and that he couldn’t have possibly surveyed the seafloor of the gulf as his submersibles, the Mir1 and Mir2 are actually deployed in Lake Baikal.  So the definitive answer to my post and the rumor flying around the internet is that no, Dr. Sagalevitch has not reported seeing dozens of cracks on the seafloor of the Gulf of Mexico leaking oil.

This information brings two points to bear for me.  First, how fast disinformation can fly around the internet, Dr. Sagalevitch remarked upon this as well.  Secondly, even without this information, we still don’t know what the actual conditions are at the seafloor or whether or not the relief wells will work.  Today we have been given a couple of interesting pieces of information including that the relief well drilling is proceeding as planned and the first tropical storm of the season has formed and is on track for the Gulf of Mexico.    We’ll talk in more detail in my next post about the potential consequences of a large tropical storm or hurricane in the gulf.  Hurricane formation in the gulf is greatly related to the temperature of the gulf and right now the gulf is very, very warm approximately eighty-six degrees Farenheit.  Look out friends the situation in the gulf may drastically change very soon and not for the better.

Evidence mounting that BP spill will need to be nuked!

We talked last week about the reports of Anatoly Sagalevitch’s comments concerning the multiple sea floor cracks and leaks of oil under the gulf.  As I said in that blog if it’s true, the Russian solution of nuking the well, sealing it by detonation of a small nuclear device, may be the only solution.  The Russians have done this five times since the late 70′s.  It would be a hugely controversial political and economic decision and I fear even if it’s necessary the government will delay any decision of that magnitude for quite some time.  Can you imagine how the right will crucify the democrats for a decision like that?  Well below is a link to an article that seems to suggest Mr. Sagalevitch may have been right:

http://motherjones.com/blue-marble/2010/06/worst-already-true-BP-well-now-unstoppable