The Most Disgusting Commercial on Television

So I’m watching CNN and a commercial comes on and it starts with a catchy Cajun beat, check it out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Q2tjWBIXEc

Now if you didn’t watch the full minute, you might be wondering what are you upset about?  Go back and go to the last-minute, the last image lists the sponsor of the video BP.  Really!  I get the justification of asking or making BP spend money to help tourism in the Gulf of Mexico regions, you know, the Gulf of Mexico where they dumped millions of gallons of oil and totally disrupted the economy.  But should BP get the benefit of the advertising themselves attached to all of these wonderful vacation images?  My purpose in posting this is that hopefully it catches on, a few of you pass it on and people actually attach some negative emotion to BP every single time you see the ad.

Quite frankly I’d rather see this ad on the air, enjoy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKpQRV_aAw0

BP Oil Spill: Halliburton is Implicated Again

Well as investigators start dissecting actually what happened to cause the deaths of eleven men and the largest oil spill in American history, we find our old friends Halliburton right in the thick of things.  According to an article published in the New York Times, Halliburton knew that the concrete used to seal the bottom of the well was unstable and didn’t meet industry standards.  Halliburton initially informed BP of the error and then failed to follow up with BP even though retests showed that the problem still exists.  This comes as no shock to anyone that both BP and Halliburton have extreme culpability in this accident.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/29/us/29spill.html?_r=2&hp

Does this mean Global Warming has accelerated?

Does this mean Global Warming has accelerated?

The short answer is no, but take a little walk with me.

So how do crazy tin-foil hat rumors get started and fly across the internet scaring the heck out of innocent folks?  Typically they start with a grain of truth, some piece of scientific research or information and then it gets out of control.  A couple of recent examples surrounding the BP Gulf of Mexico oil spill include that the sea floor was cracked in multiple areas and that Russian Oceanographer Anatoly Sagalevitch had taken his Mir1 and Mir2 submersibles to the gulf and reported this in Russia which would lead to us needing to nuke the seafloor in the Gulf.

I busted that rumor by contacting Dr. Sagalevitch and you can read about that here:

http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/06/26/anatoly-sagalevitch-comments-on-bp-oil-crisis-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

The next one that got a serious foothold was that a giant methane bubble was going to erupt from under the Gulf of Mexico and extinguish almost all life on earth.  This rumor followed the standard path, first there is some real science, a theory by Dr. Gregory Riskin that puts forward that an event like the one describe above may have been responsible for past mass extinctions.  Then you have the Gulf of Mexico BP oil spill and high levels of methane related to the spill and boom, someone jumps to the conclusion that the drilling has set off a mass extinction event.  Dr. Riskin himself debunked this one and I detailed many of the points of incongruity in another post on this blog:

http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/07/24/has-bp-triggered-an-explosive-methane-event-that-will-bring-on-dystopian-times/

Well let’s see if we can head one off before it gets started, as the title suggests, a study shows plants are reducing their uptake of carbon.  So the part that is the real science is that a 10 year study has shown that carbon uptake rates have decreased over the last decade.  Now the alarming thing is that if this trend continued it would actually accelerate the rate of increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and any impacts that result from the increase.  Hence the effects of global climate change would be greatly accelerated.   Now the not so alarming part the study, like any good scientific study, also indicates that this may have a very explainable cause.  First, the decrease is very small compared to the overall rate of carbon uptake and secondly, during the period of the study there were massive droughts in both hemispheres.  The droughts could easily account for the decrease.  You can read the article for yourself at:

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2010/0820/As-plant-productivity-dips-a-search-for-answers?sms_ss=email

As I mentioned in the methane bubble debunk piece I worry about the level of science education in the American population and the ability for the general public to discern science from conjecture, essentially the ability to tell Carl Sagan and Glenn Beck apart.

The BP Gulf Oil Spill is nothing compared to this…

The BP Gulf Oil Spill is nothing compared to this…

 Probably the only upside to the BP Horizon drilling platform sinking and subsequent oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico is that light has been shed on some other significant problems in the energy sector.

The first area that has gotten recent attention is the situation in the Niger Delta in Africa.  This area in Africa that many multi-national oil companies drill for oil in has had a significant amount of oil spill damage to its environment.  Effectively the river system that the local people are completely dependent upon for everything is a toxic mess.  The monetary fund established to compensate these same people  seems to vanish after it reaches the government of the country.  How much oil has been spilled in the Niger Delta, the equivalent of a spill the size of the Exxon Valdez disaster every year for the last forty years, a total of over 13 million barrels of oil.  This has not only led to an environmental disaster but also political upheaval as well as locals have rebelled against the government by performing terrorist acts upon the oil pipelines and drilling rigs in Niger exacerbating the problem.  However, I have to say, were I in their shoes  I might do the same thing, you can learn more about the situation in the following links:

http://newsdesk.org/2010/06/niger-delta-oil-spills-dwarf-bp-exxon-valdez-catastrophes/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/30/oil-spills-nigeria-niger-delta-shell

The second area that has gotten attention due to the BP disaster has been the issue of previously capped wells that may be leaking oil and methane into the gulf.  According to the Associated Press, there are over 27,000 abandoned wells in the Gulf of Mexico.  These “abandoned wells” are not inspected and many have been capped since the 1940’s, there are laws on the books that require these wells , particularly recently abandoned wells, to be inspected but there are no teeth in the laws so companies do not comply.  Essentially, neither the government nor the industry have any idea if or more likely how many of these wells are leaking.  Given that wells can repressurize and caps in place for up to 70 years maybe rusted and faulty, how long will it be before we have another huge spill in the Gulf of Mexico, you can read more about this at:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2010/07/07/1547812/old-wells-are-rarely-checked-for.html

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gz8SP1X8Y6bOR5kwCcuxUdV1XwLgD9GPVQ0G1

Finally there is one issue in the energy sector that has not gotten the attention it deserves during this disaster and that is the environmental damage done by hydrologic cracking or more commonly called, fracking.  I recently wrote a piece on this and you can read it at:

http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/07/13/bp-and-the-oil-industry-are-only-part-of-the-danger-and-haliburton-is-involved/

For me all of this brings up two significant issues, the first being that our insatiable desire for energy has caused us to pursue an extractive energy policy regardless of the environmental and I would argue long-term economic costs.  This mentality has to change and has to come on several fronts including conservation which seems to currently being ignored by everyone; selective extraction with concern for the environmental and health impacts to the public; and finally an energy policy in this country that address and focuses on renewable energy.  No matter what your political affiliation is you can’t deny that renewable energy helps us solve our energy issues in the United States which in the end helps our economy and improves our national security by leaving us less dependent on unstable nations.  Currently in California people are actually trying to repeal a state law that has been helping us down this road, have we learned anything from the BP spill?

My fear is that the only thing that we will take away from this disaster are the rumors of things that haven’t actually happened including the cracking of the sea floor and extinction level methane bubble disasters, both have been debunked in previous posts and can be found at:

http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/07/24/has-bp-triggered-an-explosive-methane-event-that-will-bring-on-dystopian-times/

http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/06/26/anatoly-sagalevitch-comments-on-bp-oil-crisis-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

Has BP triggered an explosive methane event that will bring on Dystopian Times?

A story has been floating around the internet recently, written by Terrence Aym, that references Gregory Riskin’s theory that several times over the course of the history of the world, explosive releases of methane gas from under the ocean have caused mass extinctions.  This theory is currently being debated in the scientific community particularly amongst geologists.  According to Aym, the recent events taking place in the Gulf of Mexico, “may have triggered an irreversible, cascading geological Apocalypse that will culminate with the first mass extinction of life on Earth in many millions of years.”

Aym further discusses the signs that would be evidence of this cataclysmic event which would include:  a splitting and cracking of the sea floor; a rise in the level of the sea floor; and massive venting of methane and other gasses.  According to Aym, ALL OF THESE ARE HAPPENING! 

You can find Aym’s story at:

http://www.helium.com/items/1882339-doomsday-how-bp-gulf-disaster-may-have-triggered-a-world-killing-event

Were this to actually occur what would really happen?  According to Ryskin’s theory the explosive release of the methane would cause a massive sea floor collapse which would trigger a giant tsunami that would significantly inundate coastal zones potentially around the world.  Secondly, as the methane entered the atmosphere, methane/water vapor clouds would form that would actually self-ignite causing worldwide fire storms.  In the end, were this event to actually occur we are talking about the end of society as we know it and for any human survivors the beginning of Dystopian Times!

So, should you be terrified right now?  Should you be suddenly investing in gas masks and fire suppression systems?  Should you say the hell with it, spend out the limits of your credit cards and have the world’s last greatest orgy?  Well the Libertarian in me won’t allow me to tell you what to do, but here are a few things to think about.

First off, Aym claims that all of the signs of a massive methane release have been demonstrated including fracturing of the sea floor, this is a rumor that has been floating around the net and is mainly attributed to comments made by Dr. Anatoly Sagalevitch which were debunked in this blog after we talked to Dr. Sagalevitch, you can read more about this at:

http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/06/26/anatoly-sagalevitch-comments-on-bp-oil-crisis-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

Secondly Aym asserts that the sea floor is rising, which he gets from reports that have ”filtered in” but yet he quotes no one specific, which has to raise some doubts about the validity of this statement.  Additionally, Aym tells us, “Most disturbing of all: Methane levels in the water are now calculated as being almost one million times higher than normal.”   He is quoting a Reuters article by Julie Steenhuysen where they do say they found concentrations in some places one million times the background concentration, however the article goes on to say that in other places they found much lower concentrations and they don’t know way.  Also, were the entire gulf being flooded with methane at the levels suggested by Mr. Aym, then the oxygen concentrations would be severely reduced.  While the researchers found some places where oxygen levels were 30% lower than normal, they also found areas with normal levels of oxygen.  So it would appear that there isn’t a massive methane bubble in the gulf at this time.  You can read the article for yourself at:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2221822720100622

Finally, as with the comments  attributed to Dr. Sagalevitch, someone actually did the smart thing and actually contacted Dr. Gregory Ryskin to ask him what he thinks?  Well folks, he doesn’t think it’s even a possibility given his theory actually deals with completely different methane compounds then the ones being released into the Gulf of Mexico.  So the guy who wrote the theory that all of the fuss is being made about doesn’t support Mr. Aym, and you can read about this at:  

http://www.businessinsider.com/gregory-ryskin-methane-2010-7

So at the end of the day is Terrence Aym just another tin foil hat lunatic trying to scare everyone to death for his own sick amusement, I doubt it.  Sadly I think the real issue a serious issue that our society faces, a lack of science education.  It is understandable that Mr. Aym could become terrified having been exposed to Ryskin’s theory, (probably on the History Channel special MegaDisasters), and then reading what would seem like those same things occurring in the Gulf of Mexico.  Unfortunately, any digging and reasoned thinking shows us clearly that we are not on the edge of a global methane bubble disaster.  Dystopian times might be coming folks, but not from this.

Gulf Seafloor Cracking Rumors to Get Tested Today by BP!

Today BP will commence with testing its new containment cap set up on the leaking Horizon Well on the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.  I reported earlier in my blog on some of the scary rumors that had been floating around the web concerning that the seafloor was in fact cracked and that oil was not just leaking from the bore hole, but also from multiple cracks along the seafloor.  You can view that original post at:  http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/06/14/if-this-is-true-bp-may-lead-the-united-states-into-depression/

One of the main points of the rumor was that Dr. Anatoly Sagalevitch had been to the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico in his deepwater submersibles the Mir1 and Mir2, I contacted Dr. Sagalevitch and he cleared this rumor up by telling me that he in fact had not been to the Gulf of Mexico and that the submersibles were currently being utilized in Lake Baikal in Russia.  You can read more about this at: http://zdeaconblue.wordpress.com/2010/06/26/anatoly-sagalevitch-comments-on-bp-oil-crisis-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

This however has not stopped rumors flying around the net that in fact the seafloor is cracked and that multiple leaks exist.  I have not ruled out this possibility and today we will get a key piece of evidence to either confirm or put down the speculation.  The cap that BP is fitting today will actually stop the flow of oil out of the pipe head.  Once they place that cap, if the pipe below is in tact and there are not other leaking areas, the pressure under that cap will rise, they predict up to 8000 psi.  If once they place that cap and close the vents and the pressure does not increase, it is significant evidence of at least more than one leak point.

So, if the pressure up significantly we can put all of the seafloor cracking rumors to bed.  If however it doesn’t, it’s not confirmation of the rumors but will be indicative of other leak points and leaves us in a position of not being able to refute that idea.

As of the writing of this article BP has announced they have delayed the closing of the vents and the integrity or pressure test.  This in itself makes me wonder if they have some indication it will not be successful?  However at this point, all we can do is sit and wait, just like we’ve been doing for nearly 3 months.

BP, Unemployment, European and Asian Slowdown, here comes the depression!

Things do not look good at this point for the US economy despite a rousing rally today on the Dow that brought us back above the 10,000 level.  Right now we are facing a major problem in the United States and that is the dreaded, “jobless recovery.”  Of course the statement is misleading because without jobs, without consumer spending the American economy does not move.  Right now we are suffering from several problems, first and foremost is unemployment, second is lack of consumer confidence and third is the threat of deflation.

Unemployment in June showed no real improvement other than for women.  In addition the census is ending and the majority of that workforce will not be unemployed, the tourist season around the Gulf of Mexico is destroyed with many location reporting drop offs of 40-70% over last year which is going to ripple through the region with even more layoffs.  Without unemployment dropping and people finding work, there is less consumer confidence which leads to less consumer spending, the details on the numbers can be found through the link:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Consumer confidence took a major drop in the last reporting period, is that a surprise to anyone but economists and politicians?  Unemployment is through the roof with an overall 9.5% rate and regional pockets of 20% rates.  The states are all broke, states are billions of dollars in the red with California’s Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger trying to pay state workers minimum wage until the budget is passed.  In California one in eight people are unemployed and many of those that are employed are taking pay cuts this year with city governments doing extreme service cutbacks to necessities like schools, fire  and police services and services to the elderly in disabled.  Might take a swipe at your confidence, you can get the details on the numbers from the link below:

http://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-confidence-june-2010-6

Paul Krugman recently wrote about the threat of depression in a NY Times Op-ed piece.  This guy is no hack, he’s the 2008 Nobel Prize winner in Economics and an expert in depression era economics.  Krugman makes an excellent argument that in spite of rampant fears about inflation, the true risk to our economy right now is actually deflation.  If you fear inflation and act accordingly to reduce it you create more potential for deflation.  Initially that doesn’t sound so bad, hell prices will go down and you’ll have more buying power.  For a small amount of deflation this is true, however it was massive deflation that caused the Great Depression.  Neither Krugman or this writer think we’re in for another Great Depression, but what Krugman calls a long depression with a protracted period of severely slow economic growth.  The good news friends, is that if you have paid down your debts, and if you haven’t, get going, then you will actually be in a pretty good spot, and as the Dow heads for a potential bottom of 8000, start buying.  There is a lot of money to be made with things bottom out, assuming you are fortunate enough to be employed and low on debt.  Check out Krugman’s article at the link below:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/28/opinion/28krugman.html

An Economic View of BP, the Oil Spill and the Gulf of Mexico

To quote Fred McCallister of Allegiance Capital Corporation while on CNN earlier this week, “BP is doing what’s in the best interest of BP and its shareholders.”  This should not come as a shock to anyone but it’s nice to actually hear someone say it on a national news broadcast.  Let’s take a deeper look at what that really means though.

The size of the spill determines the fine

 This explains why BP initially downplayed the size of the leak and has consistently underestimated the number of barrels per hour pumping out of the broken pipe.  British Petroleum already faces up to 14 billion dollars in civil penalties, payable under US environmental law, assuming the leak is plugged in August.  The size of these fines are directly linked to the size of the spill which is quickly becoming the largest in US history,  with BP liable for over $4,000 for each barrel spilt.  So in a nut shell, the fewer the barrels of oil reported to have been spilled, the smaller the fine.

Spreading out oil over time allows amortization of costs

A disturbing idea but one that seems to have merit, the use of dispersants sinks the oil so that it does not come to the surface or end up on beaches immediately, instead it will sink and wash up over time on the beaches as tar balls, thus increasing the size of the spill over time instead of all at once, read more at:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/07/02/96959/why-so-few-skimmers-at-the-oil.html

Given the financial advantage to using dispersants it is no surprise that BP refused to stop using the most available dispersant even when the EPA told them to stop.  British Petroleum is not worried about toxicity or long-term environmental impact, what’s important to BP is their bottom line, you can read more at:

http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0524/bp-ignores-order-stop-dumping-toxic-oil-dispersant-gulf/

Finally, the dollar figure for BP will escalate as: private citizens sue over health issues; environmental groups sue on behalf of the environment of the gulf; fishers sue over the damage to fishing grounds; and tourism and other industries sue for lost business.  It is not inconceivable that BP is looking at 60 – 70 billion dollars in fines and law suit damages; given that the company’s profits for 2008 and 2009 totaled approximately 40 billion dollars, this is a company in trouble.  Were the fines and lawsuits to happen all at once they’d be done, just one more reason to do what they can to work on making this all spread out over time.

In the end it’s simple, BP will only do what it has to do and will focus on doing what’s best for BP and to hell with the environment, the animals and people of the Gulf of Mexico.

Fun Friday Post: BP Comes Up with Oil Cleanup Solution

Bill Clinton advocates blowing up BP well to stop oil spill

On CNN today Bill Clinton expressed his opinion that the number one priority needs to be shutting off the leak.  “Blow it up” he said, he remarked that no nuclear weapon would be needed but that this well should be blown up and buried under rock and debris.  Given that any help from the relief wells is at least a month away and the containment dome is not currently in place, maybe this is the right solution.  It is as Clinton stated, the one tool fully within the control of the US Government.

I have no faith however that this will happen, we’ll wait to see what happens with the relief wells and if they don’t work we’ll sit around and chat until we finally come back to the conclusion our former president has already arrived at.  Given that hurricane Alex will move even more oil onto the shores of the Gulf of Mexico this week, isn’t it time we really proactively consider stopping this leak!?!

Of course we’re asking this question of two groups, BP and the federal government.  British Petroleum is the company that claimed in its environmental impact statement that they would protect non-existent walruses in the gulf.  In partnership of course with a federal government whose representatives read the environmental impact statement about protecting walruses and was too stupid or incompetent to challenge the statement.  I wonder if it’s appropriate to call mutual incompetence collusion?